Logic behind impressive runners

Hi,
I would like to explain the logic behind impressive runners, which I've posted for your future reference.

For me impressive runners are those who have posted a MSR ( modifed speed rating ) of above 10 points & more, than the rating of the class, in which they have run. For Maidens & Winners emerging from maiden term races, my bench mark is class III & above. For Classic potentials the rating should be above 100 in my scale.

Lets take the case of Noble View's run in class III. I've already given rating scale for class III, which is 70- 79.(Refer Rating Scale table in archives). Noble View posted a rating of 100 @ 55kgs, without being extended. Now for me this an impressive performance, because even if the handicapper penalises him by 10 kgs, he still has a full class advantage, while facing opposition in its next meeting. But at the same time we have to check whether there is an equally good horse, it's facing when it's running next time.Normally I calculate the ratings of all the horses at 55 kgs giving equal leverage to all.

Another example is Lightnin Blues, which posted a rating of 86,which is way ahead of class IV with a rating scale of 60 to 69, in which it ran today. Even with stiff penalty, this horse can still win, if the connections desire so. (But some trainers, immediately switch off and will make gamble when every one forgets this performance. To catch such gambles, you have to keep atleast 3 seasons record & you should be able to catch some give aways/ clues, like jky switch,eqpt change, working pattern.) Ballerina Girl & Prayatna ran close to the winner. These horses will be better placed than Lightnin Blues, because they escape with light penalty & hence they are also impressive to me.

Apart from the actual rating posted by the horse, while running the race under scanner, I'll also consider the style of winning & the opposition it faced.

Let's analyse the run of Tomsk. It was running a class III race( scale 70-79 ), facing an equal in Southern Summit as per their previous performances.Was kept way off the pace till bend, switched out wide & by that time, South.Summit was shaping like a winner. When alerted to the task, Tomsk in a trice, devoured ground without being whipped & collared the front runner with amazing turn of foot, while posting a rating of 95 which is way ahead of class III rating. I give easily another 10 points for this effortless victory, which makes it's potential rating 105 & sits pretty high in my system. Tomsk can easily cover another 200 mtrs & thats why I call him a potential champion miler.

Hope this will explain the logic behind my impressive runners.

Regards