Monday, 28 July 2008

Reply to Mr.Eshwarans comments

Dear Mr.Eshwaran,
Sorry for the delayed response, as I was hard pressed for time.You have raised very important aspect of racing, i.e in & out running,horses not running to their full potential or blatantly hooking so that the connections will capitalise when nobody fancies them.
Last few meetings in Bangalore form has taken back seat,Favourites or well fancied horses are falling by way side like nine pins.I'm not saying all favourites should win, but if the horses with merit loose continuously,there is no way but to stop racing until the things become normal. As you said racing is a mugs game, but the merit of the horse can not be hidden for long, or else it will back fire.I'll give few examples from Saturdays racing( 26th July).
I'll quote three examples of in/out runs of Orange Orchard, Superior Surprise & Celestial Treasure.
Orange Orchard
Pl go back to archives & check for the race ratings / selections & comments.
On 18th may you will find the best rated horse was Orange Orchard & I've tipped as one of the good bets.It ran like a dud.
On 8th June, the horse had still the best rating, but I was bit careful in my comments by saying, if the money comes in its way, can back it as a good bet.Again it ran miserably after being placed favourably at the bend.
Now coming back to 26th July, the horse was still best rated, but I have stopped giving ratings for my own reasons. In fact I did not tip this horse in one/two, because by now self doubts have crept in, about the potential of this horse. But once inside the ring & seeing the flow of money on Orange Orchard, I took one last chance & waged a decent bet at 5.5. It opened at 10/1 in Pune.
Rating has helped me out finally.

Superior Surprise
On 7th June I tipped this horse as one of the good bets & duly obliged at good odds.
Again on 6th July it was the best rated horse along with Double Elite & I recommended as one of the good bets because of its current form & being a winner in the previous run , but meekly surrenderd & finished 5th in the capable hands of our dear KPG.
On 26th July, connections switched from superior KPG to inferior Shoban Babu,the horse had still the rating to win, but I assumed that horse may have started weight reduction process & hence did not tip for win, but only as a third choice. But once Orange Orchard won the race, my confidence level was back & I made a jodi bet on Chilly Wind & Superior Surprise @ 8/1 & 9/1. You know the result.

Celestial Treasure
On 15th June I tipped this horse as my Days Best & what a pathetic run it was. I thought I made a mistake while calculating the rating from its previous run in race No.42, because the track was in very poor condition due to over night rains.
Coming back to Saturdays racing, again the horse was towering above the opposition, but the self doubt had crept in, though I tipped it to win, no where I mentioned it as a good bet.
By now I already had a good day, because I also backed Reflection Of Gold @ 7/1. Though I was very very confident that, Celestial Treasure will trounce the field, being it a favourite @ evens, I did not back & I don't regret.The way Cel treasure won, my confidence level is back to what it was earlier & also faith in my system was restored.

The summary of this whole excersise is that ratings are true , horses are true, form is true & only we humans are not true. Stick to your rating/ judgement / logic, what ever method you follow, you will end up, if not with profit, atleast you will break even & will enjoy racing.
Cheers.

4 comments:

G Swaminathan said...

VERY NICELY PUT. YOU HAVE MADE A VERY APT STATEMENT NOT ONLY FOR YOU BUT ON BEHALF OF MANY OTHER BLOGGERS TOO.

SWAMY

RB said...

hi rao sahab,
please do us a favour and publish your ratings as before.
people are invariably impatient and tend to ignore intelligence.
INTELLIGENCE AND METHOD are the only things that pay in the long run.
please keep up the good work.
regards.
r.b.

Sunil said...

Hi Madhu,

Very well said.

I do keep the record of your days best , top rated horses and days best. I did request you to inform me your days best for the 25th July Pune races for my records. I have started enjoying racing these days with your suggestions and ratings. Keep posting your ratings and suggestions as usual. We can understand the powercut problems at your end.

Have a grear day.
God Bless.
Sunil

madhu said...

Hi Sunil,
I had replied to your request,but bit late.Any how,it was "Fire Within" which was my days best on 25th July Pune,the day I could not post my selections.You know what happens to heavily backed Lagad's favourites.How ever this horse is for your note book,when the price is right for connections,it will canter.
Regards